NVDA & TSMC Lead Semi Rally; ADBE Battles AI Content Rivalry

Adobe (ADBE)

• Currently in a "two-front war" due to competition from Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven content generation tools.

• Facing pressure from platforms like Canva, which provide advanced tools for free or at a very low cost.

  
  

ASML (ASML)

• Driven by TSMC's strong quarterly results and AI demand, market reaction was positive and the stock price rose.

  
  

Applied Materials (AMAT)

• Market performance strengthened following TSMC's release of strong financial results and capital expenditure guidance.

  
  

Broadcom (AVGO)

• Closed up 2.5%.

  
  

Canva

• Viewed as a competitor providing low-cost or free advanced tools, challenging established software companies.

  
  

Micron (MU)

• Performed well in the semiconductor sector, with the stock price rising nearly 8%.

  
  

NVIDIA (NVDA)

• Remains a core character in the AI narrative, with the stock price rising after TSMC released positive industry reports.

  
  

OpenAI

• Announced plans to test targeted advertising in the United States for ChatGPT users on the free tier and "Go" tier.

  
  

Replit

• The AI programming startup is rumored to be completing a new round of financing, with a valuation potentially reaching $9 billion.

  
  

Salesforce (CRM)

• Despite the potential for margin improvement, growth expectations for the coming years have slowed to around 10%.

  
  

TSMC (TSM)

• 2025 net profit exceeded expectations, increasing 35% year-over-year.

• Raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $52 billion and $56 billion to meet AI demand.

• Permit application for the 4th wafer fab in Arizona is in progress; total U.S. investment has reached $165 billion.

  
  

Technology Sector News

Energy and Infrastructure

• Shift in Funding: The Trump administration is directing large technology companies to fund energy infrastructure to address surging AI demand. This includes directing PJM Interconnection to hold emergency power auctions.

• Investment Scale: Tech companies may bid on 15-year contracts, which could support the construction of new power plants valued at $15 billion.

  
  

Sector Performance and Market Analysis

• Divergent Market: The technology sector shows a divergence between the strong performance of semiconductors and the struggles of software stocks. The software ETF (IGV) has remained largely stagnant over the past year.

• AI Monetization and Return on Investment (ROI): Investors are showing impatience regarding the timeline for AI monetization. Many customers have not yet seen the expected return on investment, leading to a pause in spending for some software companies.

• Banking Efficiency: Financial institutions are shifting the positioning of AI from "innovation toys" to "efficiency levers" used for fraud detection and back-office operations.

  
  

Federal Regulation and Emerging Markets

• Antitrust Scrutiny: The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is investigating "acqui-hires"—the practice where companies bypass merger reviews by hiring a startup's employees and licensing its technology.

• Humanoid Robots: Analysts expect that driven by labor shortages and AI advancements, this market could reach $200 billion by 2035.

  
  

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